Description

Abstract: A survey was conducted during 2001 among 323 pastoral and agro-pastoral households in northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia to assess the use and value of “modern” versus “traditional” forms of seasonal climate forecasts in remote areas. Conventional wisdom suggests that forecast information should be very useful for pastoral risk management since accurate predictions could help herders move stock and hedge household risks in a timely fashion. Modern forecasts were received by about 20% of households and this was largely via radio. The vast majority (80%), however, received forecasts generated from various traditional methods, and respondents noted they typically had a high degree of confidence in these predictions. There were several forecast variables of importance to our respondents, but knowing the start date for the rainy season was regarded as most valuable. They said that forecasts are most useful if they could be received with from four to 10 weeks lead-time. Traditional forecasts for rainfall volume for the long rains of 2001 varied from the modern forecasts of the Nairobi-based Drought Monitoring Centre. The Ethiopians tended to be more pessimistic than the Kenyans. Despite a stated confidence in traditional forecasts, few respondents appeared to act on the basis of any rainfall predictions. Cultivators were more likely to respond to predictions of above-normal rainfall, while herders tended to act in response to resource-based, eyewitness scouting reports. There has been a recent upsurge in interest among donors and development agents in improved forecasting and dissemination of seasonal climate information, but our evidence suggests that the anticipated impact of such interventions in pastoral areas may be less than is commonly assumed.