Description

Abstract: Slow-onset food crises associated with drought and loss of livestock in Kenya’s arid lands routinely require emergency food aid and water distribution, livestock off-take, and other humanitarian interventions. Timely and cost-effective interventions depend fundamentally on accurate advance information of evolving situations. Improved forecasts are one essential element of emergency needs assessments and early warning systems. This brief reports on a newly developed empirical forecasting model that can predict, with reasonable accuracy and at least three months in advance, the expected child nutritional impact of slow-onset shocks such as drought.