Description

Abstract: We analyzed risk rankings perceived by pastoralists for over two years during 2000-2002 that lived in multiple locations in northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia. We found that the primary determinants of these risk rankings are community-level variables that change over time, with household-specific and individual-specific variables exhibiting much less influence. These results have several important practical implications. First, the dynamic nature of risk perceptions means that assessments of risk collected in a community in a given point in time may largely be generated by current period conditions, and thus be limited use for predicting future assessments. This is particularly likely to be an issue in the rangelands we study which are characterized by highly variable conditions over time. Second, it is most important to prioritize community-based planning and monitoring of development efforts that address risk exposure. Third, individuals throughout the study area were most concerned about food security, and development efforts that directly address food security should be given highest priority. Concerns over human health, pasture, water, and General insecurity were also prominent.