Description

This paper discusses price thresholds and volatility in an African maize market, based on analysis of data from Ghana using linear and threshold-ARCH models. There was a non-linear link between past prices and the level and volatility of present prices. The paper also describes the importance of critical thresholds for economic inference and reports on the cost of market participation, using econometric results to account for the implied risk.

An earlier version of this paper appeared as Purdue University Agricultural Research Programs Paper No. 15785.