Description

Abstract: Herd loss is one of the major risk factors in our study sites. As found throughout pastoral areas in Africa, sudden widespread herd loss is an ever present risk facing pastoral producers. We illustrate using data gathered from households in 11 sites in northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia one such incidence of sudden widespread herd loss that occurred in this area in 1999-2000. We investigate the hypothesis that pastoralists adopt a household level herd accumulation strategy during non-crisis periods as a means to reduce exposure to risks associated with herd loss. Herd accumulation pre-crisis increases the prospects that a household will have a viable herd post crisis. The evidence PARIMA has gathered confirms that larger household herd size pre-crisis is positively related to larger expected household herd size post-crisis. This suggests that policy efforts that attempt to limit herd accumulation at the household level but do not address the underlying risk of herd loss may be of questionable wisdom.